This study examines how a carbon tax could influence the cultivated protein industry’s development in Norway using agent-based modeling. Cultivated proteins (e.g., lab-grown meat, precision fermentation) offer up to 97% lower emissions than conventional livestock but face pricing disadvantages due to agricultural subsidies. Simulations show beef, lamb, dairy, and egg sectors are highly vulnerable to market shifts, with carbon taxes accelerating decline by triggering value-chain tipping points. Pork and chicken prove more resilient due to lower emissions. Paradoxically, aggressive carbon pricing could destabilize conventional sectors, making policy adoption politically contentious. The findings suggest careful carbon tax implementation is needed to avoid undermining both traditional agriculture and sustainable protein innovation. The research highlights interdependencies between policy, market dynamics, and emerging food technologies.
Modelling the effect of a carbon tax on the development of a cultivated protein industry: a Norwegian case study
ByGrégory Maubon
Jun 6, 2025
By Grégory Maubon
Leading Innovation ++ on the Field ++ with a Purpose => I used AI in cultivated meat industry to optimize bioreactor design and to dramatically improve the efficiency and quality of production. I developed high quality 3D imagery process in a biotechnological startup to disrupt the drug discovery methods.